SINGAPORE – The Marina South precinct is likely to have public housing as well, given the Government’s move to inject Housing Board flats into traditionally private housing estates elsewhere, said analysts.
In its long-term plan unveiled on Monday (June 6), the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said it would create a better mix of public and private housing islandwide, starting with the area around Upper Changi MRT station and Bayshore estate.
Its plans showed that new homes could also be built in areas such as Marina East, Marina South, Lower Seletar, Chencharu in Yishun, Sembawang North, Woodlands North and Sengkang West.
While URA’s plans did not specify the type of housing that will be built within the new housing areas including Marina South and Marina East, analysts expect public and private housing will be offered in most, if not all, the estates.
Development in Marina South was kickstarted Tuesday when the first private residential site in Marina South was launched as part of the Government Land Sales programme.
ERA Realty head of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said while conventional economics would mean selling prime land in the Marina South and East areas to the highest bidder to build private luxury developments, Singapore’s housing policies have to fulfil a social need.
This means it is likely that the Government will inject public housing in those areas, although the ratio of public to private housing remains uncertain, he said.
“Will it be a 80-20 or a 50-50 ratio? To have 80 per cent public housing is a bold move and takes strong political will because all HDB subsidies go back into our budget,” said Mr Mak.
He reckons there will be a smaller proportion of public to private housing around 20-80 – due to the high costs of building public housing on prime land.
Any public housing that will be built in the Marina area will likely be opened to international architects to submit iconic designs that will form part of the Singapore skyline, he added.
“It’s also a chance for Singapore to showcase that it’s possible to have public housing on such prime land. Just imagine a tourist looks out from Gardens by the Bay and asks what’s that development and the tour guide can say it’s public housing,” he said.
OrangeTee & Tie senior vice-president of research and analytics Christine Sun said Marina South and Marina East may have public housing as HDB flats have been announced at the nearby Keppel Club site, which will be part of the future Greater Southern Waterfront.
“Introducing flats in the Marina area is also in line with the Government’s policy to make housing more inclusive and affordable for Singaporeans, since the area currently only has private condos and commercial buildings,” she said, adding that any flats there should fall under the prime location public housing (PLH) model given the proximity to the city centre.
Other analysts noted that the move to add public housing to traditionally private estates, such as Bayshore and around Upper Changi MRT station in Simei, is a deviation from the past where prime land was reserved for private developments.
It is a step towards ensuring housing equity, said Dr Leong Chan-Hoong, who heads policy development, evaluation and data analytics at consulting firm Kantar Public.
The shift, he added, signals that Singapore is “taking concrete measures to address the structural imbalance that has been amplified by the Covid-19 pandemic as housing is a long-term variable that can influence not just your wealth, but the wealth of your children.”
Pointing to how the Government has also moved to include rental flats in the Rochor Build-to-Order PLH project, he said including diverse housing options in more privileged neighbourhoods will ensure strong social mobility for generations to move up.
They will not be restricted, for instance, in the event that their parents’ current home does not appreciate in value in the future, he added.
OrangeTee’s Ms Sun said it is timely for new homes to be added in Bayshore and in Simei, where existing housing consists largely of private condos and landed homes, with older HDB flats some distance away.
There should be some pent-up demand for new HDB flats as there have not been any launches in recent years, she said, adding that it is unlikely flats in both areas will come under the PLH model as they are too far from the city centre.
Associate Professor Walter Theseira of the Singapore University of Social Sciences said while previous era of reserving prime land for private developments was helpful for state coffers, it would have led to the physical segregation of Singaporeans by income in the long run.
“So the emphasis on building new public housing in all parts of Singapore, even in high property value districts is important, especially as many of the existing public housing stock in those districts are ageing and likely to be redeveloped sooner rather than later,” said Prof Theseira.
He suggested that authorities could be bolder in their land use plans, such as considering whether private landed property with no historic or cultural value and high potential for redevelopment should be subjected to carefully planned compulsory redevelopment, similar to HDB’s Selective En bloc Redevelopment Scheme (Sers).
“Implicitly, we seem to treat existing private residential property in prime areas, particularly landed property, as sacrosanct. Other than a public works related reason for acquisition, we usually leave these alone, even if the same policy reasons which justify acquisition and redevelopment of HDB flats through Sers – the much greater opportunities for reimagining and restructuring our urban landscape – also apply there,” he said.
“So it’s worth asking the question whether prime land, currently occupied by low-rise private housing, should ideally remain so forever.”
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