Singapore Home Sales Fell 16.3%, Not 30%: Why Rents Rose Even as More Homes Sat Empty

Singapore’s final third-quarter property figures paint a more nuanced picture than the early headlines suggested.

Private-home transaction volume fell 16.3% quarter-on-quarter, substantially less than the roughly 30% decline reported in the preliminary release. Almost all of the final decline came from developer sales, while resale activity remained broadly steady.

But the more intriguing development concerns the rental market: rents increased even as vacancy rose and the number of occupied homes declined.

Our analysis is that Q3 reflects two different pressures. The sales market was affected by a quieter launch calendar, partly reflecting the Hungry Ghost Festival period, when developers traditionally avoid major launches. Meanwhile, the completed housing market struggled to absorb available stock. Together, these trends point to uneven market conditions rather than a uniform picture of strength or weakness.

The 30% Decline Was an Incomplete Picture

URA’s flash estimate released on 1 October recorded 4,296 transactions, based on information available up to mid-September. That was approximately 30% below the 6,148 transactions in Q2.

The final statistics released on 23 October put Q3 transactions at 5,146, narrowing the quarterly decline to 16.3%. The earlier figure was a preliminary count, rather than the completed quarter’s result.

The breakdown shows where the slowdown occurred:

Source: URA. Percentage changes calculated from the reported transaction counts. Figures exclude executive condominiums.

Of the 1,002 fewer transactions, developer sales accounted for 958, or approximately 95.6% of the decline.

This distinction matters. A sharp reduction in developer sales can pull down the overall market total even when buyers and sellers continue transacting at a similar pace in the secondary market.

Fewer Launches Explain Part of the Slowdown

Developers launched 1,140 uncompleted private homes, excluding ECs, during Q3, compared with 1,783 in Q2—a reduction of approximately 36.1%. Developer sales fell more sharply, by 44.7%.

A quieter launch calendar reduces the number of fresh projects available to attract buyers. It also changes the locations, price points and unit types on offer, making quarterly developer-sales figures sensitive to the projects launched during that period.

However, fewer launches should not be treated as a complete explanation. Buyers can still purchase unsold units from earlier launches, and developers’ launch decisions may themselves reflect expectations about demand.

The reasonable conclusion is narrower: Q3’s sales decline was concentrated in the developer market and coincided with a substantial reduction in launch supply. The figures do not establish that buyer demand weakened equally across all segments.

Resales Held Steady, but Their Larger Share Needs Context

Resale transactions slipped by just 12 units, from 3,813 to 3,801.

Their share of total transactions rose to 73.9%, up from about 62% in Q2.

That larger share does not mean resale demand surged. It primarily reflects the contraction in developer sales.

Nevertheless, the stable transaction count is meaningful. It suggests that the secondary market continued to facilitate purchases despite the much weaker new-sales headline.

For buyers, resale homes offer a different decision framework: an existing neighbourhood, a completed development and a unit that can usually be inspected directly. These characteristics may appeal to households comparing immediate housing needs against the prices and waiting periods of new launches.

The figures do not reveal individual buyers’ motivations, but they clearly show that activity remained much steadier in the resale segment.

Prices Continued Rising Despite Lower Sales

Overall private-home prices increased 1.4% in Q3, unchanged from the flash estimate.

Within the non-landed market, the regional differences were substantial:

Source: URA’s final Q3 2026 statistics.

Lower transaction volume does not automatically produce falling prices. Fewer completed deals can still occur at higher prices, particularly where sellers hold firm and buyers remain willing to pay for particular locations or properties.

The regional results also caution against applying one national headline to every condominium. Suburban non-landed prices rose considerably faster than those in the central regions.

For an individual purchase, the relevant comparison remains the development’s recent transactions and competing alternatives, rather than the overall index alone.

Why Did Rents Rise While Vacancy Increased?

Overall private residential rents rose 1.3% in Q3. At the same time, the vacancy rate for completed private homes, excluding ECs, increased from 6.4% to 7.2%.

The quarter also saw 3,559 homes, including ECs, completed, the highest quarterly completion figure since Q3 2024. Meanwhile, occupied private-home stock, excluding ECs, declined by 305 units.

These measures describe different aspects of the market.

Rental indices track rental price movements. Vacancy measures how much completed housing stock is unoccupied. Higher rents on properties securing leases can therefore coexist with more homes remaining empty.

A newly completed apartment may also require time for handover, renovation, furnishing or tenant placement. Some vacant units may be intended for owner occupation or sale rather than immediately offered for rent.

These are possible mechanisms, rather than confirmed explanations for every vacant home in Q3. They show why a rising vacancy rate cannot be read simply as the proportion of landlords unable to find tenants.

Still, the fall in occupied stock deserves attention. The quarter’s vacancy increase was not solely due to additional homes arriving faster than occupancy could grow: the number of occupied homes also fell.

The Regional Comparison Shows an Uneven Rental Market

The regional figures make the apparent contradiction clearer:

Source: URA. Rental changes refer to non-landed homes; vacancy figures refer to completed private residential properties by region. The measures have different coverage and should be compared directionally.

The CCR had the highest vacancy rate and a small decline in non-landed rents. That combination is consistent with a softer rental environment.

The RCR recorded the largest vacancy increase, at 1.3 percentage points, yet rents still rose.

The OCR showed the strongest contrast: non-landed rents rose 3.1%, even as vacancy climbed 0.9 percentage points. Its vacancy rate nevertheless remained the lowest of the three regions.

We interpret this as rental demand and available supply not matching evenly within each region. Tenants may compete for particular locations, layouts, or monthly budgets, while other properties take longer to secure occupants.

A regional rental increase therefore offers limited reassurance to an owner whose unit faces substantial competition within the same development or neighbourhood.

Smaller Units and Completion Clusters Remain Questions to Test

Two possible explanations deserve closer examination.

First, rental affordability may concentrate demand in certain unit sizes. A tenant working within a fixed monthly budget may accept a smaller apartment, potentially supporting rents in that segment while larger units face a different leasing environment.

Second, completions may create local concentrations of competing units. Several similar apartments becoming available together can lengthen leasing periods, even when rental conditions elsewhere remain firm.

The aggregate figures do not establish either explanation. Testing them would require rental contracts by unit size, project-level completion and occupancy information, and evidence on how quickly available units secure tenants.

For investors, analysis needs to move beyond the regional index. A rising OCR rental index does not establish that every suburban project—or every unit type within it—is enjoying stronger demand.

Rising Rents Do Not Guarantee Higher Annual Income

A landlord’s return depends on both the rent achieved and the time the property remains occupied.

Consider an illustrative apartment renting for S$4,000 a month. With uninterrupted occupancy, it generates S$48,000 a year in gross rent.

If the monthly rent increases by 3.1%, it becomes S$4,124. But with one vacant month, annual gross rent would be S$45,364—approximately 5.5% below the original fully occupied scenario.

This example excludes expenses and assumes the remaining 11 months are fully paid. It illustrates why a modest rental increase may be outweighed by a longer vacancy period.

When assessing a property, consider achievable rent and likely leasing time together.

More Upcoming Supply Adds Choice, but Timing Matters

URA estimates that approximately 32,800 homes, including ECs, could be made available for sale over the next one to two years.

This is potential sales supply, not 32,800 completed homes entering the rental market within that period.

The distinction matters. Launch supply influences buyers’ choices and competition between projects. Completed supply affects the stock available for occupation. The two operate on different timelines.

For homebuyers, the upcoming pipeline supports careful comparison between new launches and resale alternatives. For investors, the more immediate question is how many competing homes could become ready for occupation around the same time as their own unit.

Q3’s final figures show a market in which resale activity held steady, launch sales slowed sharply, and rental performance varied across regions. The practical lesson is to assess each property against its direct competition—and to give occupancy prospects as much attention as headline rental growth.

Article contributed by Jerry Wong.

Jerry Wong is a realtor at Propnex Realty, bringing a rich background in interior and lighting design to his work. He loves exploring diverse spaces and observing the transformative power of real estate. Beyond his professional role, Jerry finds his greatest fulfillment in connecting people with the right properties, gaining immense satisfaction from helping clients achieve their dreams.