National context on the Q1 2026 dip and why a single index can hide “micro‑markets”
Singapore’s HDB resale market posted a slight quarter‑on‑quarter decline of 0.1% in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, which The Straits Times noted as the first q‑o‑q decline since Q2 2019 (based on HDB’s flash estimate). This came after a long stretch in which the market either rose or stayed flat for many quarters, and HDB also noted that the dip followed five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth.
It’s important to separate the two ideas:
The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) is meant to reflect overall price movement across the public resale market and is computed from transactions across towns, flat types, and models, with 1Q2009 as the base period (index = 100). In other words, by design, it is broad and national.
Methodologically, the RPI is not just a raw average of transacted prices. Government metadata on the series notes that the RPI is based on the quarterly average resale price by registration date, and that it moved from a stratification method (up to 3Q2014) to a stratified hedonic regression method (from 4Q2014 onwards). This matters because a hedonic approach aims to adjust for “mix” (e.g., differing attributes of transacted flats), while simple averages (or even segmented PSF averages) can swing if the mix of what sells changes.
Instead, we decided to break the market into 5 regions × flat types to diagnose where the softness is happening—and where it is not—because a national flash estimate can look “flat” even when individual sub‑markets diverge.
Data used and how the analysis was done
This analysis is based on the five PropNex Investment Suite (ProTrend) charts (each comparing Point A: Q4 2025 vs Point B: Q1 2026, and showing Average PSF and transaction volume by flat type) across the following aggregated regions:
Central/South: Central Area, Bukit Merah, Queenstown
Central/North‑East: Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang, Serangoon, Toa Payoh
West: Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Bukit Timah, Choa Chu Kang, Clementi, Jurong East, Jurong West, Tengah
East: Bedok, Geylang, Kallang/Whampoa, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris, Tampines
North: Sembawang, Woodlands, Yishun
To identify the “best” and “worst” performers, we applied two complementary lenses—each addressing a distinct but practically relevant question:
A Price‑momentum lens: compute volume‑weighted average PSF change from Q4 2025 → Q1 2026 within each region (so the region’s dominant flat types matter more than tiny segments).
A Breadth‑of‑weakness lens: measure how much of Q1 2026 transaction volume occurred in flat types that declined q‑o‑q (this helps you spot regions where weakness is widespread vs concentrated).
Two important data cautions from the charts themselves: – Very small samples (for example, Executive / Multi‑Generation in Central/South) can create very large percentage swings that are not representative of the broader market.
Finally, note the broader market backdrop: even as prices dipped slightly at the national index level, resale volume rose (HDB’s Q1 2026 volume was reported at 6,179 transactions up to March 30, versus 5,256 in Q4 2025). A rising volume while prices soften is often consistent with a market shifting toward greater supply and more price discovery, rather than a sudden demand collapse.
Region-level performance: which area looks strongest vs weakest
The chart below summarises the volume‑weighted PSF change by region (computed from Protrend’s PSF and flat-type volumes).
Q4 2025 → Q1 2026: Volume-weighted PSF change by region (from charts)
Region scorecard using volume‑weighted price change
| Region | Volume‑weighted Avg PSF Q4 2025 → Q1 2026 | Direction | What’s really driving it (from flat-type splits) |
| Central/South | +1.32% (≈ $846 → $857) | Strongest by “all‑types” weighted metric | Big 3‑room jump (+7.65%) and stable 4‑room (+0.42%) outweigh 5‑room (‑4.41%) and MG/EXEC (‑17.4%, tiny sample) |
| East | +1.20% (≈ $660 → $668) | Strong | 4‑room up (+2.66%) on large volume, 3‑room up (+0.61%); 5‑room (‑0.93%) and MG/EXEC (‑0.81%) mildly down |
| Central/North‑East | +0.75% (≈ $680 → $685) | Mildly positive | Gains concentrated in 5‑room (+1.83%) and 3‑room (+1.0%); 4‑room down (‑0.76%), MG/EXEC down (‑6.59%) |
| West | ‑0.22% (≈ $589 → $587) | Weak | Declines in 3‑room (‑1.02%), 5‑room (‑0.86%), MG/EXEC (‑1.77%) offset small gains in 4‑room (+0.34%) and 1‑2 room (+1.59%) |
| North | ‑0.40% (≈ $576 → $574) | Weakest by “all‑types” weighted metric | Broad softness across 3‑room (‑0.16%), 4‑room (‑0.18%), 5‑room (‑0.74%), MG/EXEC (-1.25%); only 1‑2 room rises strongly (+4.12%); |
The “breadth” view: where weakness is widespread vs concentrated
If we ask: “In Q1 2026, what share of transactions happened in flat types that declined q‑o‑q?” the picture becomes even clearer:
North: ~88% of Q1 volume sat in declining types (3-, 4-, and 5-room), indicating weakness is broad-based there.
West: ~55% of Q1 volume was in declining types, also fairly broad.
Central/South: only ~18% of Q1 volume was in declining types—because the rising 3‑ and 4‑room segments dominate transactions.
This is why North can look “only slightly down” on a weighted PSF metric, yet still be the most consistently soft region in practical terms: most buyers transact in 3‑, 4‑, and 5‑room flats, and those are the categories drifting down in the North.
Best and worst areas, stated plainly
Best overall (broad, mass‑market interpretation): East
East has the cleanest “healthy market” signature: 3‑room and 4‑room are rising, and 4‑room (the largest volume segment in many towns) rises meaningfully (+2.66%) while larger flats are only mildly down.
Weakest overall (most widespread softness): North
North shows declines across 3‑, 4‑, and 5‑room, which together represent the majority of transactions—so the softness is not confined to a niche sub‑segment.
Runner‑up weak region (price momentum in core segments): West
West’s weakness is particularly clear when you focus on the core 3‑/4‑/5‑room market, where West is the softest among regions.
Flat-type segmentation: where each unit category is rising or falling
A key insight across the five‑region breakdown is that “the market” is behaving like multiple markets.
Small flats lead; large flats lag
When we aggregate the signal across the five regions, the directional pattern is consistent:
1‑2 room: up in 4 of 5 regions (strongest overall, but small volumes)
3‑room: up in 3 of 5 regions
4‑room: up in 3 of 5 regions
5‑room: down in 4 of 5 regions
Multi-Generation/Executive: down in 4 of 5 regions (and often with higher volatility due to thinner volume)
This lines up with a common late‑cycle dynamic in housing markets: affordability‑constrained buyers concentrate in smaller quantum sizes, while higher‑quantum segments (5‑room / executive) become more price sensitive.
Best vs worst region by flat type
1‑2 Room
Best: East (+10.33%), but on very low volumes (13 transactions in Q1 2026), so interpret with caution.
Worst: Central/South (‑0.14%), essentially flat.
3 Room
Best: Central/South (+7.65%) (a standout rebound).
Worst: West (‑1.02%).
4 Room
Best: East (+2.66%) with strong transaction volume, making it one of the more credible “real demand” signals in the dataset.
Worst: Central/North‑East (‑0.76%).
5 Room
Best: Central/North‑East (+1.83%).
Worst: Central/South (‑4.41%), suggesting higher‑quantum flats in mature/central locations are facing meaningful resistance.
Multi-Generation/Executive
Worst: Central/South (‑17.4%), but this is based on extremely thin volumes (only a few transactions), so it is a “flag” more than a definitive trend.
Best: East (-0.81%), Although still negative, it is the strongest performer relative to the other regions.
Interpreting the pattern: what it suggests about demand, supply, and price sensitivity
The Q1 2026 dip is small, but the market is clearly rotating
The Straits Times reported that analysts linked the Q1 decline to two main factors: more resale supply (including more flats becoming eligible for resale) and the availability of BTO flats with shorter waiting times, which reduces the urgency premium buyers sometimes pay in the resale market.
That supply story is not abstract. A separate Straits Times analysis highlighted that 13,480 flats are expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, nearly double 2025’s 6,970, with large concentrations in Punggol, Queenstown, Tampines, and Toa Payoh (Bidadari). This matters for our region framework because: – Punggol sits in the Central/North‑East region, – Queenstown sits in Central/South, – Tampines sits in East, – Toa Payoh sits in Central/North‑East.
The “macro” implication (inference, grounded in the supply facts above) is that more MOP supply raises buyer choice and negotiation power, and the earliest price pressure often shows up where quantum is highest or where supply is increasing fastest.
The region results match a “more balanced market” narrative—especially in large flats
HDB’s earlier flash‑estimate commentary (for Q4 2025) emphasised the market had already slowed substantially: Q4 2025’s RPI was essentially flat, and full‑year price growth slowed sharply from 9.7% (2024) to 2.9% (2025). The Q1 2026 decline is consistent with that deceleration story, but our breakdown adds two granular takeaways:
Large-flat softness is widespread
Across the five regions, 5‑room and multi-generation/executive flats decline in 4 out of 5 regions, while smaller flats rise more often. This is not a single-town anomaly; it looks structural.
Weakness is geographically “outer-leaning” in the mass market
North and West show the most consistent softness in the core 3‑/4‑/5‑room market, which matches how a market cools when buyers have more options: they tend to price‑shop harder in locations where substitutable supply is higher and where commuting/location premiums are less “inelastic.”
Why the PSF trend can look stronger than the national RPI
One nuance worth making explicit: the PropNex PSF trends (and our derived weighted averages) are transaction‑mix averages, while the RPI is produced with a methodology intended to reduce mix effects via stratified hedonic regression. That’s why it is possible for: – the national RPI to show ‑0.1%, while – the overall average PSF (especially if more newer/higher‑quality flats transact in that quarter) can still look positive.
This does not mean one is “wrong.” It means they answer different questions: – RPI: “What happened to the standardised market price level?”
– Our segmentation: “What happened in each location × flat‑type sub‑market, in the units people actually transacted this quarter?”
Summary of best and worst areas from the breakdown
East is the standout “best” region for Q1 2026 momentum because it pairs positive movement in the dominant mass-market categories (especially 4‑room) with only mild declines in larger flats.
Central/South also “screens” well on an overall weighted average, but it is the most polarised: strong gains in 3‑room (and stable 4‑room) co‑exist with meaningful weakness in 5‑room and a highly volatile executive segment. Practically, that reads less like “everything is strong” and more like a two‑speed mature/central market.
North is the clearest “worst” region because weakness is broad-based across 3‑/4‑/5‑room types, which collectively account for the vast majority of transactions—so softness there is likely to be felt by the median buyer and seller.
West is the other weak spot: it shows negative momentum across multiple mainstream categories (notably 3‑room and 5‑room, plus executive), and it is the softest region when isolating the core 3‑/4‑/5‑room market.
Finally, these regional differences remain consistent with the national narrative that the market is entering a more balanced phase—with rising resale volume, more supply coming onstream, and much tighter pricing power—rather than a sharp downturn.
Disclosure: This post is for educational and analytical purposes. It is not financial advice. Data is taken from ProTrend graph values (as of 2nd April 2026), and compared using volume-weighted psf across various unit types.
Article contributed by Jerry Wong.
Jerry Wong is a realtor at Propnex Realty, bringing a rich background in interior and lighting design to his work. He loves exploring diverse spaces and observing the transformative power of real estate. Beyond his professional role, Jerry finds his greatest fulfillment in connecting people with the right properties, gaining immense satisfaction from helping clients achieve their dreams.
