The Headline Story Is Softer Prices, But Not A Uniformly Weak Market
Singapore’s HDB resale market has now posted two straight quarterly declines. HDB’s flash estimate put the Resale Price Index at 202.7 in Q2 2026, down 0.3% quarter on quarter, after a 0.1% decline in Q1 2026. Resale volume in Q2 stood at 6,268 transactions up to 29 June, down 10.2% year on year. On the finalised Q1 data, the market recorded 6,285 transactions in Q1 2026, up from 5,256 in Q4 2025 but below the year-earlier level. In other words, the national market has softened, but it has not frozen.
At the same time, the private market did not collapse. URA’s Q2 2026 flash estimate showed overall private residential prices still rose 0.5%, although more slowly than the 0.9% increase in Q1. Under that headline, the private market was also uneven: non-landed prices fell 0.1%, while CCR non-landed rose 2.0%, RCR fell 1.4%, OCR fell 0.2%, and landed prices rose 2.6%. That matters because it reinforces the same analytical point for HDB: when a composite index turns slightly negative, the most useful question is not “Is the whole market falling?” but “Which sub-markets are actually soft?”
That distinction is important because HDB’s resale index is intentionally broad. HDB describes the RPI as an index calculated from resale transactions across towns, flat types, and models, and SingStat’s metadata notes that from 4Q2014 onward it has been computed using a stratified hedonic regression method, rather than a simple raw average. So a national -0.3% move can easily coexist with very different outcomes across specific regions and unit types.
The Regional Charts Show The Market Rotating Again
To facilitate a like-for-like comparison, we have retained the same PropNex ProTrend charts and regional classifications from our earlier analysis.:
Central/South (Bukit Merah, Central Area, Queenstown)
Central/North-East (Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang, Serangoon, Toa Payoh)
West (Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Bukit Timah, Choa Chu Kang, Clementi, Jurong East, Jurong West, Tengah)
East (Bedok, Geylang, Kallang/Whampoa, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris, Tampines)
North (Sembawang, Woodlands, Yishun)
Using the attached charts, the Q1 2026 to Q2 2026 picture looks like this:
| Region | What moved in Q1 to Q2 2026 | Our Findings |
| North | 1–2 room -1.79%, 3-room -0.65%, 4-room -1.96%, 5-room -0.93%, only MG/Exec +0.72% | Broad-based weakness continues |
| East | 1–2 room -8.18% on very thin volume, 3-room -2.43%, 4-room +0.14% essentially flat, 5-room +1.71%, MG/Exec +1.31% | Mixed market, with smaller-unit softness and larger-unit stability |
| West | 1–2 room -0.78%, 3-room +2.06%, 4-room -0.51%, 5-room +0.17%, MG/Exec +1.80% | Rebound after prior weakness |
| Central/North-East | 1–2 room -0.13%, 3-room +0.46%, 4-room -0.57%, 5-room -1.65%, MG/Exec -0.47% | Momentum faded sharply |
| Central/South | 1–2 room +4.96%, 3-room +2.10%, 4-room +1.35%, 5-room -0.99% | Still the strongest and most resilient area |
A simple breadth test makes the divergence clearer. Based on the attached charts, Q2 transaction volume in the North region was concentrated in flat types that recorded PSF declines. Central/North-East also showed broad weakness, while the West was more balanced and Central/South remained comparatively resilient. The East region showed a mixed trend, although its exact weighted reading should be treated with caution due to an unusually low Q2 4-room volume marker compared with surrounding quarters.
In summary, North remained weak, Central/South stayed firm, the West showed signs of stabilisation, the East lost some of its earlier strength, and Central/North-East turned noticeably softer. This gives a far more nuanced picture than the national 0.3% decline alone.
Compared With The Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 Analysis, Some Trends Persisted, and Some Flipped
Our previous analysis of Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 found that the strongest regional readings were Central/South (+1.32%) and East (+1.20%), followed by Central/North-East (+0.75%), while West (-0.22%) and North (-0.40%) were the weakest on a volume-weighted basis. It also found that 1–2-room flats rose in four of five regions, 3-room and 4-room flats rose in three of five, while 5-room and MG/Executive flats fell in four of five regions. In that earlier quarter, the broad story was that smaller and mid-sized flats were holding up better, while larger and higher-quantum formats were showing greater sensitivity.
That earlier framework makes the latest attached charts much more interesting, because Q1 to Q2 was not just “more of the same.” It was a rotation.
North is the cleanest case of continuity. In our earlier analysis, North was already the weakest region, with about 88% of Q1 volume concentrated in declining segments. In the attached Q1→Q2 charts, the weakness not only remained but broadened, with only MG/Executive positive and roughly 92% of Q2 volume sitting in declining types. This is no longer a one-quarter wobble; it is the clearest two-quarter soft patch in the five-region framework.
Central/South is the clearest case of durability. In Q4→Q1, our earlier analysis had already identified it as the strongest-weighted region, driven by a large 3-room rebound and stable 4-room pricing, even though 5-room and executive-type stock was weaker. In the attached Q1→Q2 charts, resilience persisted: 1–2-room, 3-room, and 4-room all rose again, while only 5-room fell. So the market’s strongest region remained the strongest region, and its strength broadened slightly rather than narrowing.
West is where the pattern improved. Previously, West was the runner-up weak region, especially in the core 3-room / 4-room / 5-room mass-market segments. In the latest data, West no longer looks like a persistent laggard: 3-room rebounded sharply, 5-room stabilised, and MG/Exec improved. Only 1–2 rooms and 4 rooms remained negative. That is not a boom signal, but it is a meaningful stabilisation versus the prior quarter.
East and Central/North-East are the two regions in which the prior-quarter narrative weakened the most. East had been the earlier article’s “best overall” broad-market region because 3-room and especially 4-room were rising while larger formats were only mildly down. But in the latest Q1→Q2 charts, East lost that clean signature: 1–2-room and 3-room turned down; 4-room was flat at best; and only 5-room plus MG/Exec advanced. Central/North-East also deteriorated: it had been mildly positive in Q4→Q1, but in the latest quarter only 3-room stayed positive, while 1–2-room, 4-room, 5-room, and MG/Exec all weakened.
So the market did not simply continue its Q1 pattern. It re-ranked itself. The leaders became more selective: one laggard stabilised, another worsened, and one previously “healthy” region turned mixed.
The Drivers Now Look More Like Supply Normalisation Than A Demand Collapse
The evidence still points more toward market normalisation than toward a full-blown downturn. HDB has repeatedly tied the moderation story to a stronger pipeline of new flats and alternative supply. In June 2026, HDB launched 6,952 BTO flats across Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang, and Woodlands, and earlier said 2,520 of the June BTO flats would have waiting times of around three years or less. For October 2026, HDB said it will launch about 7,960 flats in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh, and Yishun.
That supply backdrop aligns closely with the five Protrend regional charts. The North region includes Sembawang, Woodlands, and Yishun, all of which are directly affected by June or October BTO supply. Central/North-East includes Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, and Toa Payoh, which are also in the 2026 supply pipeline. Our analysis indicates that these regions now offer buyers a broader selection of alternative housing options, resulting in increased competition for resale flats.
This appears to have contributed to the North remaining the weakest-performing region, while the Central/North-East region also experienced a noticeable loss of momentum. This conclusion is also consistent with our earlier analysis, which tied the Q1 softening to more resale supply and shorter-wait BTO alternatives reducing the urgency premium in resale.
The MOP story points in the same direction. Analysts highlighted that 13,480 HDB flats were expected to reach their minimum occupation period in 2026, nearly double the 2025 tally, with large concentrations in Punggol, Queenstown, Tampines, and Toa Payoh.
That matters because additional supply does not pressure every segment equally. In Q1, our analysis concluded that larger, higher-quantum flats were generally more price-sensitive. In Q2, the attached charts suggest something more nuanced: some of the pressure spread into 1–2-room and 3-room units in certain regions, while parts of the 5-room and MG/Exec market stabilised in places like the West and East. Our understanding is that once a market moves from scarcity to greater choice, softness no longer has to be confined to a single format. It can migrate across unit types depending on local substitutes, affordability ceilings, and where the newest MOP or BTO alternatives are showing up.
There is also evidence that caution rather than panic is shaping behaviour. CNA reported that analysts were pointing to a weaker hiring outlook, structural layoffs, and buyer prudence, while also noting that 16 towns registered quarterly resale price declines in Q2, with the largest drops in Serangoon (-7.9%), Marine Parade (-7.6%), and Geylang (-6.9%). That town-level report is especially relevant because Serangoon sits within the Central/North-East cluster, while Marine Parade and Geylang sit within the East cluster—two of the attached regional markets that look soft or mixed in Q1→Q2.
The Premium Segment Is Still Active, Which Is Why The Downturn Feels Selective
One reason the national decline does not feel like a broad-based slide is that the premium tail of the HDB market is still very active. Million-dollar flat transactions rose to 491 in Q2 2026 from 411 in Q1, and ERA said 902 such deals were recorded in 1H 2026, already above the 763 in 1H 2025. Many of these transactions were concentrated in Toa Payoh, Queenstown, and Bukit Merah, while some of the Q2 uplift in five-room million-dollar deals came from projects such as Bedok South Horizon and Hougang RiverCourt, which had recently reached MOP.
This helps explain two things that might otherwise look contradictory.
First, it helps explain why Central/South remains so resilient while the national HDB index is down. The premium and mature-estate pull of places like Bukit Merah and Queenstown can continue to support 1–4-room pricing even if other parts of the resale market cool. That is consistent with our earlier findings that Central/South was already polarised rather than uniformly strong—and in the latest Protrend charts, it appears that the resilient side of that polarisation still dominates.
Second, it explains why East can look mixed rather than cleanly weak. Public reporting indicates premium five-room deals in Bedok South Horizon helped lift the million-dollar segment, yet CNA also reported that Marine Parade and Geylang were among the towns with the biggest quarterly declines. That is exactly what a selective market looks like: standout premium transactions can coexist with a soft broader regional average if the mass of smaller or mid-priced inventory is under more pressure.
So the right takeaway is not that the market is “fine” because million-dollar deals are still being done. It is that headline weakness and premium-pocket strength can coexist, and they are coexisting right now.
The Most Probable Conclusion For The Rest Of 2026
The national HDB downturn is real, but it is still primarily a story of redistribution, substitution, and segmentation—not capitulation.
From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, the market first signalled that size and quantum mattered: smaller and mid-sized flats held up better, while larger formats looked more price-sensitive. From Q1 2026 to Q2 2026, the market rotated again: North confirmed its weakness, Central/South confirmed its resilience, West stabilised, East lost leadership, and Central/North-East softened materially. Public town-level data from CNA reconfirms this rotation, especially in Serangoon, Marine Parade, and Geylang.
Using data from these differentiated charts can shed more light than just inferring from the national index alone. HDB’s RPI shows that the overall market is slightly down, but the five-region, flat-type breakdown reveals where sellers are losing pricing power and where demand remains more resilient.
Based on the official HDB and URA releases, together with the attached regional charts, our outlook for 2H 2026 is:
• North now looks like the most convincing buyers’ market in this five-region framework.
• Central/North-East is no longer a quietly positive region; it has become meaningfully more vulnerable.
• East is no longer the clean leader it was in the prior-quarter analysis.
• West looks more balanced than it did three months ago.
• Central/South still has the strongest pricing resilience, especially in smaller and mid-sized stock, even though 5-room units remain more negotiable than the headline suggests.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the author’s analysis and opinions based on publicly available information, including data released by the Housing & Development Board (HDB), Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), and PropNex ProTrend market statistics. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information at the time of publication, no representation or warranty is made regarding its completeness, accuracy or reliability.
Market conditions, government policies, interest rates, housing supply and buyer sentiment can change over time and may affect future property prices and transaction activity. The views and forecasts expressed in this article are based on current market data and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance.
Readers should not rely solely on this article when making property purchase, sale or investment decisions. Individual circumstances vary, and independent financial, legal, tax and property advice should be sought where appropriate. References to specific regions, flat types or market trends are intended as general market observations and should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell or hold any particular property.
Article contributed by Jerry Wong.
Jerry Wong is a realtor at Propnex Realty, bringing a rich background in interior and lighting design to his work. He loves exploring diverse spaces and observing the transformative power of real estate. Beyond his professional role, Jerry finds his greatest fulfillment in connecting people with the right properties, gaining immense satisfaction from helping clients achieve their dreams.
