Scope and key findings
This blog post is an in-depth analysis of the Government Land Sales (GLS) residential site at Dairy Farm Walk (tender closed Jan 22, 2026), which was awarded to a consortium comprising ABR Holdings, LWH Holdings, Macly Capital, and RP Ventures (Roxy Pacific). The analysis will integrate (i) the tender and location materials attached, (ii) pricing trend information from PropNex’s Protrend comparable charts, and (iii) publicly available sources such as The Business Times, CBRE research commentary, URA/agency circulars, IRAS duty rules, and construction cost benchmarks.
The headline story is that the Dairy Farm Walk (late-2025 launch, Jan-2026 close) plot cleared at about S$962 psf ppr—below the previous Dairy Farm Walk (Jan 2025) plot that became Narra Residences at S$1,020 psf ppr and also below the S$980 psf ppr paid for the Dairy Farm Walk plot that became The Botany at Dairy Farm.
However, “lower land cost” does not automatically mean “lower launch pricing,” because this site has attributes that can raise all-in breakeven cost, including: a low plot ratio (~1.4), height restrictions (4–6 storeys), and a sloping site—all of which can translate into higher construction complexity and a less efficient cost-per-saleable-sq-ft outcome.
Expected future selling price (forecast)
A defensible base-case expectation for the new Dairy Farm Walk development’s average launch price is:
S$2,250–S$2,350 psf (base case) with a broader sensitivity band of ~S$2,200–S$2,450 psf, depending on final design/specs, flatter vs steeper portions of the site, sales pacing strategy (especially vs Narra Residences), and macro conditions.
This anchors to (a) CBRE’s stated launch expectation of ~S$2,200–S$2,300 psf for this site at S$962 psf ppr, (b) observed launch benchmarks in the immediate micro-market (notably Narra ~S$2,180 psf, Botany ~S$2,070 psf), and (c) a cost-based cross-check using BSD/ABSD rules and Singapore condominium construction cost ranges.
At ~480 units (a figure repeatedly cited by URA and market analysts for this plot), a rough implied sell-out GDV is likely around ~S$780m–S$840m, highly sensitive to the eventual total saleable area.
GLS site and tender economics
The Dairy Farm Walk GLS parcel was released under the H2 2025 Confirmed List, with URA indicating it could yield ~480 residential units. The key physical controls are: site area ~29,444.2 sqm, max GFA ~41,222 sqm, and building-height controls of 4 storeys along the boundary facing the canal/landed housing and 6 storeys for the rest of the site.
Tender outcome and developer signal
At tender close (Jan 22, 2026), the top bid was S$427 million, translating to about S$962 psf ppr, from a consortium comprising ABR Holdings, LWH Holdings, Macly Capital and Roxy Pacific.
Two aspects of the bid distribution matter for forward pricing:
The top-two bids were extremely tight (about a 0.4% spread), indicating the market had a relatively consistent view of value despite the site’s constraints.
The comparison set inside Dairy Farm strongly frames achievable pricing. The Business Times and CBRE both highlighted that this S$962 psf ppr top bid is ~5.7% below the earlier S$1,020 psf ppr Dairy Farm Walk plot (now Narra Residences) and ~1.8% below the S$980 psf ppr plot (now The Botany at Dairy Farm).
Micro-location constraints that affect breakeven
Three site-specific cost risks repeatedly mentioned by market commentators are directly relevant to “how high must the developer sell”:
MRT distance friction: the nearest MRT (Hillview) is approximately ~700m away and potentially ~15 minutes on a largely unsheltered route—this tends to cap how aggressively the project can price versus more transit-adjacent suburban new launches.
Low plot ratio / low-rise massing: a plot ratio around 1.4 (vs 2.1 for multiple prior Dairy Farm sites) implies less buildable floor area per unit of land, and the development may need to spread across more blocks—often requiring more “duplicated” cores (lifts/stairs) and potentially higher common-area and services cost per saleable square foot.
Sloping terrain: the site’s slope was explicitly flagged as a challenge that can raise construction complexity and contribute to more conservative land bids.
These items are why, even with a lower land rate than Narra, the project is not automatically a “cheaper-to-launch” outcome.
Planning and harmonised-GFA considerations
Why “harmonised vs non-harmonised” changes psf comparisons
Singapore’s Harmonisation of Floor Area Definitions (URA/SLA/BCA/SCDF) materially affects residential development economics and the meaning of “$psf” across projects.
The joint-agency circular (effective Jun 1, 2023) establishes several key shifts, including:
All agencies’ floor areas are measured to the middle of the wall.
“All strata areas will be included as GFA.”
“All voids will be excluded from the strata area.”
Applicability: the revised definitions apply to development applications submitted on/after Jun 1, 2023, and also to GLS sites launched for sale on/after Sep 1, 2022.
Implication for our comparables set:
Narra Residences (site awarded Jan 2025) and the new Dairy Farm Walk site (launched Nov 2025, closed Jan 2026) fall into the “post-harmonisation GLS era,” while Botany (Mar 2022 tender close), Dairy Farm Residences (2018), and Skywoods (2012) are “pre-harmonisation.”
What this means for the pricing strategy
The practical market effect is that buyers comparing psf across old and new projects must be careful: harmonisation tends to reduce opportunities for “free” non-living areas to sit outside GFA, making newer harmonised projects appear higher in psf, even when the lived internal area may be more efficient. This was explicitly discussed in reporting on Narra Residences, where developers described it as falling under the new framework and affecting how strata/non-living spaces are treated.
For forecasting the Dairy Farm Walk project, harmonisation matters in two ways:
It raises the developer’s effective land cost per sellable area (because fewer “bonus” areas can be excluded from GFA), which pushes required selling prices up for a given land bid.
It changes competitive positioning against pre-harmonised nearby stock: older projects may be “cheaper on paper” psf, but the new project will be newer, with newer facilities, and may still command a premium if buyers prioritise product freshness and the Dairy Farm nature enclave.
Comparable developments and what their land costs imply
To compare like-for-like, the best anchors are the Dairy Farm / Hillview cluster GLS sites where land rates are publicly reported. The Myst is useful as a pricing competitor, but it is not a GLS parcel, and its land economics are not directly comparable to “$psf ppr” GLS benchmarks.
Land rates (psf ppr) and pricing anchors
The table below combines (i) land rates (psf ppr) from publicly reported tender outcomes and (ii) key launch-era pricing references from mainstream sources.
| Development | Harmonised regime | Land cost (psf ppr) | Publicly cited launch pricing anchor | Notes relevant to the new Dairy Farm Walk site |
| Narra Residences (Dairy Farm Walk) | Yes | S$1,020 | ~S$2,180 psf (avg) | Same micro-cluster; explicitly described as launching under the revised harmonisation framework. |
| The Botany at Dairy Farm | No | S$980 | ~S$2,070 psf (avg) | Same cluster; pre-harmonisation GLS era. |
| Dairy Farm Residences (Dairy Farm Road) | No | S$830 | ~S$1,626 psf (avg) | Same broad enclave; older launch benchmark showing how land rate translated into pricing in 2019. |
| The Skywoods | No | S$616 | (Older cycle; resale benchmark focus) | Last GLS in the area before the 2018–2022–2025 wave; cited as 2012 GLS benchmark. |
| The Myst (Upper Bukit Timah) | No | Not GLS-comparable | S$2,057 psf (avg at launch weekend sales) | Important price competitor in D23, but site acquired via Tan Chong transaction; land cost structure differs from GLS psf ppr assumptions. |
| New Dairy Farm Walk GLS (Award Jan 2026) | Yes | S$962 | Expected ~S$2,200–S$2,300 psf (analyst view) | The subject site, with a lower land rate vs Narra/Botany, but subject to a lower plot ratio and slope constraints, may compete with Narra when launched. |
Comparing “land cost psf ppr → pricing psf” in the cluster
Within the Dairy Farm Walk micro-market, recent anchor points are unusually clean:
Moving from Dairy Farm Residences (S$830 psf ppr → ~S$1,626 psf avg launch) to Botany (S$980 psf ppr → ~S$2,070 psf avg launch) illustrates both (a) land inflation and (b) the newer-launch premium that buyers have recently accepted in this green suburban pocket.
Moving from Botany (S$980 psf ppr) to Narra (S$1,020 psf ppr) shows only a moderate land-cost increase, but Narra’s position as the first harmonised District 23 launch is cited as a meaningful “new benchmark” moment; Narra’s average launch price is reported around S$2,180 psf.
For the new site at S$962 psf ppr, the land rate is lower than Botany/Narra, but it also comes with low-rise/slope cost challenges and a likely 2027 launch window, with direct competition risk from remaining Narra inventory (flagged by market commentary).
Forecast pricing for the Dairy Farm Walk development
This section provides a transparent pricing model (what must be true for pricing to clear) and then arrives at an expected selling price.
Step one: translate the land bid into a cost base
From the tender coverage, the top bid is S$427m = ~S$962 psf ppr.
But the developer’s cost base is not just the land bid:
Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD): For residential property acquisitions from Feb 15, 2023, BSD has a top marginal rate of 6% (for the portion above S$3m).
ABSD for housing developers: IRAS clarifies that acquisitions by housing developers are subject to 40% ABSD, comprising 35% remittable upfront (subject to conditions) and 5% non-remittable.
IRAS also sets the operational constraint that developers must commence within 2 years and complete and sell all units within 5 years (subject to eligible extensions for complex projects/CORENET X).
These duties matter for pricing in two ways: they lift the “true” breakeven, and they increase the developer’s urgency to manage sales velocity.
Step two: incorporate construction cost reality (especially for low-rise, multiple-block sites)
For Singapore, a quantity-surveyor benchmark (Asia Infrastructure Solutions, 2Q2024) puts condominium construction costs (excluding land) roughly at:
Condominiums, average standard: S$3,750–S$4,950 per m² GFA.
Condominiums, above average standard: S$4,550–S$7,200 per m² GFA.
This is important for Dairy Farm Walk because the site’s low-rise constraints and sloping terrain were specifically cited as factors that can increase construction complexity and cost.
Step three: reconcile with observed market anchors (Narra, Botany) and analyst expectations
Two immediately relevant “price reality checks” sit next door:
Based on the ProTrend chart, Narra Residences achieved an average launch price of approximately S$2,180 psf, making it the first private residential development in District 23 to be introduced under the revised GFA harmonisation framework.
The Botany at Dairy Farm launched at an average price of around S$2,072 psf (from Protrend chart).
CBRE’s research commentary for the Dairy Farm Walk tender specifically expects the successful bidder to look to launch at an average price of ~S$2,200–S$2,300 psf.
Expected selling price and rationale
Base-case expected average selling price (launch): S$2,250–S$2,350 psf.
Why this range is the most defensible “centre of gravity”:
The “floor” is set by (a) the modern cluster benchmark established by Botany (~2,070 psf) and Narra (~2,180 psf), and (b) the cost headwinds from slope + low plot ratio + harmonised regime costs.
The “ceiling” is constrained by the site’s MRT distance and competitive overlap with Narra Residences at launch (a scenario explicitly flagged by market commentary).
Sensitivity band: ~S$2,200–S$2,450 psf.
A tighter range is appropriate because (i) bids were closely clustered (i.e., developers broadly agree on economics), and (ii) there are now strong local anchors (Botany/Narra) that reduce “pricing freedom.”
Implied sell-out value
URA and analysts repeatedly reference a yield of about 480 units. Without the final unit mix and efficiency, any GDV is necessarily approximate; however, if the project clears in the forecast range above, the implied sell-out GDV plausibly sits in the broad vicinity of ~S$780m–S$840m (order-of-magnitude), with the most important driver being total saleable area delivered under harmonised definitions.
Market impacts and risks for the Dairy Farm cluster
How the new project’s selling price could move the local market
The attached Protrend price chart shows a clear “price ladder” in the area: older projects (e.g., Skywoods, Dairy Farm Residences) sit on lower psf bands, while newer launches and near-TOP projects (Botany, Narra, Myst) occupy the ~S$2,0xx psf zone, with Narra at the top of that immediate cluster.
If the new Dairy Farm Walk project launches around S$2,250–S$2,350 psf, it will likely:
Reinforce a new benchmark band above Botany and around/above Narra, which can exert upward valuation pressure on newer resale stock in the enclave (especially Botany as it approaches TOP and shifts from “new sale” to “resale”). This “benchmarking” effect is consistent with how consultancies frame the translation of land price to launch price in the same tender commentary.
Widen the new launch vs resale gap vs older pre-harmonisation projects (Dairy Farm Residences, Skywoods). A widening gap can do two different things depending on buyer psychology: (a) pull resale prices upward as sellers peg to the latest new launch reference, or (b) increase resale competitiveness for value-conscious buyers who accept older stock for a discount. The tender commentary explicitly highlights older resale projects trading at materially lower levels than new launches.
Competitive interactions across the five comparables
Narra Residences (harmonised, same cluster): Because it is the nearest “like-for-like” in both location and harmonised regime, Narra’s absorption pace and remaining inventory will strongly influence how aggressive the new developer can be. This exact competition risk (launching in 2027 with Narra as the competitor) was explicitly raised in the tender reporting.
The Botany at Dairy Farm (non-harmonised, same cluster, near TOP): Botany’s transition from “developer sale” to “resale discovery” often unlocks a new phase of price transparency. If the new site is priced materially above or below the local ~S$2,1xx band, it can influence Botany owners’ resale expectations and buyers’ willingness to pay resale premiums for “move-in-sooner” convenience. Tender and launch reporting show Botany as a key anchor in the precinct’s recent pricing story.
The Myst (non-harmonised, nearby but different sub-node): The Myst has a launch benchmark of S$2,082 psf (from Protrend) and is closer to Cashew/Hillview amenities.
But it is not a GLS-comparable land-cost benchmark because its land entered via a Tan Chong transaction structure (not a URA GLS tender), which makes its “psf ppr” less meaningful for our land-cost-based extrapolation.
In this case, The Myst is treated as a demand competitor (D23 buyer pool, nature adjacency narrative), not as a direct land-economics analogue.
Dairy Farm Residences and The Skywoods (older, non-harmonised, same cluster): Their role is less about setting the new project’s price and more about how the new project’s price re-prices the entire local narrative (“this enclave now trades above S$2,2xx for new launches”), which can lift asking prices and valuations. CBRE’s commentary notes these older nearby resale projects transact at meaningfully lower medians than the new launches.
Key risks that can move the forecast up or down
Construction cost and engineering risk: Because the site is sloping and low-rise-constrained, substructure and earthworks risk are more significant than on flat, high-rise suburban plots; this can push breakeven up, which can pressure launch pricing upward.
Policy and timeline pressure (ABSD remission): IRAS requires commencement within 2 years and completion/sell-out within 5 years (subject to eligible extensions), with non-remittable and remittable ABSD mechanics that penalise delays. This regime tends to encourage pricing strategies that balance margin with absorption certainty—especially relevant if Narra is still selling when the new site launches.
Harmonisation comparability trap: Buyers comparing psf across non-harmonised (older) and harmonised (newer) stock can misread value if they don’t normalise for definitional differences; this affects how quickly the market accepts higher headline psf in the new project.
Disclosure: This post is for educational and analytical purposes. It is not financial advice. Projections are based on the provided ProTrend graph values, our inferred prices and comparability assumption, and indicative prices (accurate as of 3rd April 2026). Actual construction costs, timelines, and market conditions may vary.
Article contributed by Jerry Wong.
Jerry Wong is a realtor at Propnex Realty, bringing a rich background in interior and lighting design to his work. He loves exploring diverse spaces and observing the transformative power of real estate. Beyond his professional role, Jerry finds his greatest fulfillment in connecting people with the right properties, gaining immense satisfaction from helping clients achieve their dreams.
