Singapore’s private residential market may be entering one of its most important testing periods in recent years.
The concern is not that buyers have disappeared. Instead, the market appears to be moving away from a period when almost every attractively located new launch could achieve an exceptional opening-weekend result. Buyers now have more alternatives, face higher purchase prices and appear increasingly willing to wait for a project that offers the right combination of location, layout and price.
This shift is evident in the more measured take-up at Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences, as well as a recent developer sale at Terra Hill that established a new price floor for the project.
However, the next two major launches—Lucerne Grand and Thomson Reserve—could materially change the picture. Both have strong attributes that could attract a broad base of owner-occupiers and upgraders. Their performance may help determine whether the recent moderation is a temporary pause or the start of a more sustained slowdown.
The Market Is Slowing, but It Has Not Stalled
Headline sales volumes suggest that the primary market has lost some momentum from the strong rebound in 2025.
Developers sold approximately 4,885 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums, during the first seven months of 2026. This was about 11.6% lower than the corresponding period in 2025.
However, the number of units launched fell even more sharply, down about 28.7% to 4,516 units. Developer sales therefore continued to exceed the number of homes launched, producing a sales-to-launch ratio of about 1.08.
This distinction is important. Lower transactions do not necessarily mean demand has collapsed when developers have also released substantially fewer units.
URA’s second-quarter data supports the view that the market is moderating rather than reversing sharply. The overall private residential price index increased by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 0.9% in the preceding quarter. Price growth for the first half of the year was 1.4%, compared with 1.8% during the same period in 2025.
More significantly, non-landed private home prices declined by 0.1% during the quarter. Prices fell by 1.2% in the Rest of Central Region and 0.1% in the Outside Central Region, although the Core Central Region recorded a 1.8% increase. URA’s second-quarter statistics therefore show an increasingly uneven market rather than a uniform movement in either direction.
Dunearn House: A Good Launch That Fell Short of Recent Boom-Time Expectations
Dunearn House sold 212 of its 380 units during its launch weekend, achieving a take-up rate of 56% at an average price of approximately S$3,140 per sq ft. The project’s initial sales were supported by its District 11 location, proximity to established schools and first-mover position within the future Bukit Timah Turf City residential precinct.
A 56% result should not automatically be described as weak. Selling more than half of a project in one weekend at an average price above S$3,000 psf still demonstrates substantial purchasing power.
The moderation becomes clearer when the result is compared with launches that achieved take-up rates of 70%, 80% or even more than 90% during the recent market upswing.
Dunearn House also showed that buyers were highly selective within the project. Three-bedroom and three-bedroom-plus-flexi units sold out, while the standard four-bedroom layouts achieved an 89% take-up rate. Demand was therefore not evenly distributed across its entire inventory.
This points towards a market in which buyers are prepared to pay premium prices for layouts they consider scarce or particularly functional, but are less willing to compromise on unit configuration simply to enter a new development.
Dunearn House’s remaining stock will be worth monitoring. Its opening-weekend percentage provides only the first signal. The more revealing question is whether sales continue steadily after the initial pool of highly motivated buyers has been absorbed.
Lentor Gardens Residences: Has Repeated Supply Reduced the Urgency to Buy?
Lentor Gardens Residences recorded a broadly similar result. The project sold approximately 270 of its 499 units during July, representing a take-up rate of about 54% at a median price of approximately S$2,357 psf.
Once again, this was not a poor launch in isolation. More than half the development was sold, demonstrating that buyers continue to recognise the appeal of Lentor MRT station, the growing amenities around Lentor Modern and the precinct’s increasingly established residential environment.
However, the result was significantly below the 96% launch-month take-up achieved by Lentor Central Residences in March 2025.
Lentor Gardens Residences was also the seventh successive project introduced within the wider Lentor precinct since 2022. Buyers no longer face the same urgency that existed during the neighbourhood’s earlier launches. They can compare different projects, completion timelines, views, layouts and resale prospects within the same estate.
The moderation may consequently reflect local supply fatigue rather than an island-wide collapse in demand.
It could also indicate that the first-mover premium has shifted elsewhere. Buyers attracted to emerging districts were recently offered alternatives such as Tengah Garden Residences and Vela Bay, both of which carried stronger transformation narratives.
Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences together contributed 63.6% of new private home sales during the month. This reinforces the importance of interpreting market volumes together with the launch calendar.
Similar Prices Can Produce Very Different Results
One of the clearest indications of buyer selectivity comes from comparing Tengah Garden Residences with Narra Residences.
Tengah Garden Residences sold 853 of its 863 units, or 99%, at an average price of S$2,120 psf. Prices began at S$980,000 for a one-bedroom apartment and S$1.11 million for a two-bedroom unit. The development combined a comparatively accessible price quantum with retail amenities, proximity to the future Hong Kah MRT station and the distinction of being the first private condominium in Tengah. The developer’s launch announcement highlighted particularly strong demand from buyers in surrounding western estates.
By comparison, Narra Residences sold 135 of its 540 units, or 24.8%, at an average price of approximately S$2,180 psf during its launch weekend. Its initial result was much more measured, despite the relatively small difference in average price.
The contrast demonstrates that buyers are not responding to psf pricing alone.
They are evaluating:
- The total purchase price
- Proximity to an MRT station
- Whether a project offers a compelling transformation or first-mover story
- The amount of competing supply nearby
- Unit efficiency and family suitability
- The difference between the new launch and nearby resale alternatives
This is why one strong or weak launch cannot define the entire market. Each project is increasingly being judged on its individual merits.
Terra Hill’s New Price Floor Is an Important Warning Signal
Terra Hill provides another indication of growing price sensitivity.
A 1,539 sq ft four-bedroom apartment on the fifth floor was sold by the developer for S$3.22 million in August 2026, equivalent to S$2,093 psf. This was the first developer sale within the project below S$2,100 psf and approximately 6.3% below its previous psf low of S$2,233.
It was also around 21% below the development’s launch-weekend average of approximately S$2,650 psf in February 2023. Terra Hill achieved a 38% take-up rate at its original launch, and 54 of its 270 units reportedly remained unsold as at 1 September 2026. The latest transaction details suggest that the developer may be placing greater emphasis on moving its remaining inventory.
However, one transaction should not be treated as proof that every unit at Terra Hill has been repriced.
The transaction involved a relatively large four-bedroom unit with a high ceiling and a loft area included in its strata floor area. As larger homes often achieve lower psf prices than smaller apartments, the comparison should also account for differences in floor level, orientation, usable space and any unit-specific incentives.
Nevertheless, the transaction matters because it establishes a new benchmark. Buyers considering older launch inventory may now expect greater flexibility, particularly for larger units carrying higher overall price quanta.
If similar pricing adjustments begin appearing across multiple projects, it would indicate that developers are increasingly prioritising sales velocity over maintaining earlier price benchmarks.
Why Lucerne Grand Could Revive Suburban Demand
The next major test is expected to come from Lucerne Grand.
CDL has announced that the 570-unit mixed-use development is scheduled for launch in October 2026. It will be directly connected to Lakeside MRT station and located near Jurong Lake Gardens within the broader Jurong Lake District. CDL’s latest project update confirms both the launch timeline and the project’s direct MRT connection.
Lucerne Grand possesses several attributes that have historically supported strong mass-market demand:
- Direct access to an existing MRT station
- A mixed-use format with retail convenience
- A large surrounding population of potential HDB upgraders
- Proximity to Jurong Lake Gardens
- A long-term transformation narrative linked to Jurong Lake District
- A broad selection of unit types within a sizeable development
CDL acquired the site for S$608 million, equivalent to approximately S$1,132 psf per plot ratio. This gives the developer a different cost base from more recent suburban GLS sites that have crossed S$1,300 or S$1,500 psf ppr.
The launch will test whether buyers still respond strongly when a project combines connectivity, convenience and an attractive overall price proposition.
If Lucerne Grand achieves a high take-up rate, recent slower launches may be interpreted as project-specific outcomes rather than evidence of widespread demand destruction. It would also show that the upgrader market can absorb a sizeable development when the value proposition is sufficiently clear.
If sales are more measured despite its direct MRT connection and mixed-use positioning, the case for a broader wait-and-see attitude would become considerably stronger.
Thomson Reserve Is the Bigger Stress Test
Thomson Reserve may be even more consequential because of its scale.
The 1,268-unit development is planned for the former Thomson View Condominium site along Upper Thomson Road. A joint venture involving CapitaLand Development, UOL Group and Singapore Land acquired the approximately five-hectare site for S$810 million.
Its location places it beside Upper Thomson MRT station and close to Thomson Plaza, Ai Tong School, MacRitchie Reservoir and Windsor Nature Park. CapitaLand’s acquisition announcement highlighted the site’s connectivity, panoramic views, and proximity to established amenities, while UOL has confirmed the project is scheduled to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Although Thomson Reserve is technically an RCR project rather than a conventional OCR mass-market condominium, its size and expected unit range mean it must appeal to a broad owner-occupier and upgrader audience.
It will test several aspects of the market simultaneously:
- Whether buyers will accept current RCR pricing for a large suburban-style development
- Whether proximity to an MRT station and popular school can overcome affordability concerns
- Whether the market can absorb more than 1,200 units without relying on aggressive incentives
- Whether family-sized units can sustain demand beyond the first launch weekend
- Whether developers will release inventory progressively to manage the headline take-up rate
A strong launch would have an outsized effect on annual sales figures. For example, selling 60% of the development would translate into approximately 760 transactions—more than the entire primary-market sales volume recorded in July 2026.
This is why Thomson Reserve cannot be evaluated only as another individual condominium. Its scale makes it a meaningful test of the depth of Singapore’s upgrader market.
Are Buyers Waiting for These Two Projects?
The timing of Lucerne Grand and Thomson Reserve could partly explain the moderation observed at recent launches.
Property purchases are rarely made in isolation. Buyers who know that two large, well-connected developments are approaching may delay their decisions to compare:
- Launch prices
- Unit layouts
- Maintenance fees
- School proximity
- Transport convenience
- Developer incentives
- Potential capital appreciation
- Nearby resale alternatives
This creates the possibility that some demand has been postponed rather than lost.
If so, weaker sales at projects launched immediately before Lucerne Grand and Thomson Reserve may reflect a temporary accumulation of buyers on the sidelines. A strong response to the two projects would release part of this pent-up demand and improve market sentiment.
The opposite is also possible. If buyers remain cautious even after these launches become available, it would suggest that affordability—not a lack of suitable choices—is the more significant constraint.
Rising Resale Activity Strengthens the Wait-and-See Case
Buyers are not limited to choosing between different new launches. They can also move into the resale market.
URA recorded 3,813 private residential resale transactions in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3,225 in the first quarter. Resales accounted for 62% of all private residential transactions during the quarter.
This shift matters because the widening price gap between new and resale homes gives buyers an alternative to accepting continually rising launch prices.
A resale condominium may offer:
- A larger internal floor area
- Immediate occupancy
- Greater certainty over views and facilities
- An established maintenance record
- A lower psf price than a nearby new launch
As more new non-landed homes cross the S$2 million or S$2.5 million threshold, buyers are likely to compare the actual space and utility they receive rather than focusing primarily on the property’s age.
Developers may therefore be competing not only against the next launch but also against thousands of resale units across established estates.
Developers and Buyers May Be Looking at Different Time Horizons
The record top bid submitted for the New Upper Changi Road residential site illustrates the growing divergence between developer confidence and consumer caution.
A UOL, CapitaLand Development and Singapore Land consortium submitted the highest offer of S$1.425 billion, equivalent to approximately S$1,537 psf ppr. The bid was around 13.8% higher than the next offer and established a new benchmark for a pure residential GLS site in the suburbs.
The site could accommodate approximately 1,010 homes and benefits from its position opposite Bedok Town Centre, less than five minutes from Bedok MRT station and Bedok Mall. The developers have indicated that the project will offer two- to four-bedroom units, with an emphasis on keeping purchase quanta realistic. Details of the tender and competing bids were published by URA.
However, as at 7 September 2026, URA had not formally awarded the site. The authority expressly stated that it was still evaluating the bids. URA’s tender notice should therefore be distinguished from an award announcement.
The high bid demonstrates developer confidence in Bedok’s mature amenities, upgrader population and limited supply of directly connected sites. It may also reflect developers’ need to replenish their future pipelines.
But developers are pricing land based on demand several years ahead. Buyers are deciding whether to commit at today’s prices.
A bullish land bid does not guarantee that consumers will accept the eventual launch price required to cover land, construction, financing, marketing and other development costs.
This creates a central tension within the market: developers are bidding on the assumption that desirable sites will remain scarce and that household purchasing power will continue growing, while buyers may believe that increasing supply and slower sales will eventually produce better value.
What to Watch at the Upcoming Launches
The opening-weekend sales percentage will attract the most attention, but it should not be the only measure used.
The most informative indicators will include:
- Overall take-up rate
A result above recent launches would support the argument that buyers had been waiting for more compelling projects.
- Sales by unit type
A development may report a healthy headline percentage while demand is concentrated almost entirely in smaller or lower-priced units. Broad demand across two-, three- and four-bedroom layouts would be a stronger signal.
- Purchase-price distribution
The proportion of units sold below S$2 million and S$2.5 million may reveal more about affordability than the average psf price.
- Post-launch sales velocity
The first weekend captures buyers who are already prepared to commit. Sales during the following eight to twelve weeks reveal whether the project can attract the wider market without substantial incentives.
- Buyer profile
A high proportion of local owner-occupiers and HDB upgraders would indicate that demand is supported by genuine housing needs rather than a narrow investment segment.
- Competition with resale homes
If resale volumes continue rising while new-launch take-up falls, buyers may be rejecting the new-home premium rather than property as an asset class.
Three Possible Outcomes
The next launch cycle could lead to three broad interpretations.
Scenario One: Demand Reaccelerates
If Lucerne Grand and Thomson Reserve produce strong and broad-based sales, the recent moderation would appear temporary and project-specific. This would suggest that buyers remain financially capable but are reserving their purchasing power for projects with superior connectivity, amenities and value.
Scenario Two: The Market Remains Selective but Stable
Both projects could sell a substantial portion of their units without approaching the near-sell-out results seen at the strongest launches. This would represent a normalised market in which developments require months rather than days to achieve high take-up.
Prices may continue to increase modestly, but developers would need to rely more heavily on careful product design, staged releases and competitive price quantum.
Scenario Three: Affordability Becomes the Dominant Constraint
If even these highly anticipated projects record weak take-up, particularly outside their smallest units, it would indicate that purchasing power is no longer keeping pace with launch prices.
Developers with ageing inventory could then become more willing to offer discounts, while future land bids may become more cautious. Price growth could flatten even if the wider economy and employment market remain resilient.
The Market Is Becoming More Discriminating
Singapore’s private residential market does not currently show the characteristics of a broad collapse. Sales are still absorbing new supply, household demand remains present, and well-positioned projects continue to attract buyers.
What has changed is how that demand is distributed.
Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences show that a good address is no longer sufficient to guarantee an exceptional take-up rate. Terra Hill’s new price floor suggests that buyers may increasingly expect concessions from developments carrying remaining inventory.
At the same time, Lucerne Grand and Thomson Reserve possess the connectivity, scale and owner-occupier appeal needed to draw buyers back into the primary market. Their launches may reveal whether consumers were simply waiting for better choices or have reached a more fundamental affordability limit.
The record top bid for the New Upper Changi Road site adds another layer to the debate. Developers remain confident enough to pay aggressively for well-located land, but the next few launches will show whether buyers share that confidence at the eventual selling prices.
The market may no longer be lifted by a rising tide. From this point forward, every development will increasingly have to justify its price—and earn its own demand.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for general information and market commentary only. Project details, launch dates, prices, sales figures and availability may change. Buyers should verify the latest information and obtain appropriate financial, legal and property advice before making a purchase.
Article contributed by Jerry Wong.
Jerry Wong is a realtor at Propnex Realty, bringing a rich background in interior and lighting design to his work. He loves exploring diverse spaces and observing the transformative power of real estate. Beyond his professional role, Jerry finds his greatest fulfillment in connecting people with the right properties, gaining immense satisfaction from helping clients achieve their dreams.
